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2024-12-13 05:02:57

Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.Bishuiyuan and others set up a new environmental protection technology company in Taiyuan. The enterprise search APP shows that Taiyuan Bishuiyuan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. was established recently, with the legal representative of Liu Yanwei and the registered capital of 275 million yuan. Its business scope includes: urban greening management; Water pollution prevention and control services; Sales of new membrane materials; Public utilities management services, etc. Enterprise equity penetration shows that the company is jointly held by Bishuiyuan and others.General Administration of Customs: In the first 11 months, automobile exports were 762.97 billion yuan, up by 16.9%. According to the data of General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, China exported 13.7 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up by 8.4%, accounting for 59.5% of China's total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts and components were 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%; 1.03 trillion yuan of integrated circuits, up by 20.3%; Mobile phones reached 874.45 billion yuan, down by 0.9%; Automobile was 762.97 billion yuan, up by 16.9%. In the same period, the export of labor products was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%, accounting for 16.7%. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were 1.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; Textiles were 915.96 billion yuan, up 6%; Plastic products reached 681.09 billion yuan, up 6.9%. The export of agricultural products was 657.34 billion yuan, up by 4.6%. (General Administration of Customs)


FTSE China A50 index futures fell to 3%.Xinjiang's revitalization plate rose in a short period of time, Xinjiang Jiaojian had a daily limit, Qingsong Jianhua, Bona Film and Friendship Group had previously closed the board, the western animal husbandry rose by more than 10%, and the western construction, Beixin Road and Bridge, Tianshun shares, Beiken Energy and Guotong shares followed suit.The South Korean police demanded that 11 people, including Premier Han Dezhu, be investigated. On December 10th, local time, the special investigation team of the National Investigation Headquarters of the South Korean Police Department, which is responsible for investigating the emergency martial law, said that 11 people, including State Councilor Han Dezhu and Zhao Taiyong, president of the National Intelligence Agency, had been asked to investigate. (CCTV News)


From next month, Wuhan will be exempted from the qualification examination fee for taxi drivers. It was learned from the Passenger Transport Development Center of Wuhan Municipal Transportation Bureau that from next year, Wuhan will no longer charge the qualification examination fee for cruising taxis and online booking taxi drivers.In the first 11 months, China's foreign trade in goods reached a steady growth of 39.79 trillion yuan. The General Administration of Customs announced on the 10th that in the first 11 months of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 39.79 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year, achieving steady growth. Among them, the export was 23.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; Imports reached 16.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%.When the individual pension system is fully liberalized, it is expected that Y share will be added. It is learned from multiple channels that the individual pension system will be implemented nationwide after the third anniversary of the pilot project in 36 cities, and the relevant deployment is already in full swing, and the pension products are also expected to expand. According to the industry, in terms of Public Offering of Fund products, broad-based index funds and ETF-linked funds such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI A500 Index and GEM Index are expected to be included, and Y shares will be added to meet the allocation needs of investors. (Cailian)

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